Bitcoin approached the lower end of its recent range after a late spike above $68,000 reversed, leaving price action targeting local lows near $66,000. The move trapped buyers who entered on the pop and sent traders looking for signs of further downside.
Price signals and order-flow
Data from TradingView showed BTC briefly topping $68,000 after the daily close before rolling back toward the previous support zone. Spot-market cumulative volume delta (CVD) indicated aggressive long entries at the highs were being absorbed by real selling, a classic sign that late buyers were getting trapped.
Market commentators highlighted the same dynamics. JDK Analysis described the episode as spot selling meeting newly opened longs, reinforcing the bull-trap interpretation. Independent analyst Filbfilb pointed to a negative Coinbase premium — Coinbase BTC/USD trading below Binance BTC/USDT — as evidence of softer US demand and a warning sign for price strength during US hours following a second strong rejection.
Macro backdrop
Geopolitical risk remained a key influence. The US Department of Defense scheduled a press briefing by Secretary Pete Hegseth at 8:00 a.m. ET, ahead of Wall Street’s open, and markets were parsing developments around US-Iran tensions and potential disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude briefly climbed above $106 earlier in the week before easing slightly, keeping risk assets under pressure.
Sentiment and trader views
With equity markets fragile, traders increasingly favored lower BTC levels in the near term. Crypto trader Michaël Van de Poppe noted repeated rejections on upward bounces and forecast a likely liquidity sweep of the lows in early April before any meaningful rebound.
Conclusion
Technical order-flow, on-chain indicators and a negative Coinbase premium, combined with geopolitical uncertainty and elevated oil prices, have left market participants cautious and focused on downside scenarios for Bitcoin. The near-term outlook is tilted toward lower testing before a sustainable recovery can be confirmed.
Disclaimer: This rewrite is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading carries risk; readers should do their own research before making financial decisions.