After a strong start to the week, Bitcoin (BTC) has slid about 5%, tracking declines in the S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq and gold. By contrast, crude oil jumped roughly 7.3% on the day and is up about 53% since the US–Israel–Iran conflict began on Feb. 28.
The weakness reflects a broader reallocation of capital amid ongoing Middle East tensions, with major equity ETFs seeing record withdrawals. The Kobeissi Letter reported a combined $64 billion pulled from S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) ETFs over the past three months — the largest outflow on record. That reverses a roughly $50 billion inflow in November and represents about 5% of those funds’ assets under management.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have followed suit, posting around $253 million in outflows over the past two days. Monthly spot-ETF flows remain positive at about $1.48 billion, but that sits against $6.3 billion in cumulative outflows from November through February, signaling a tentative recovery in demand.
On-chain and market data suggest limited capacity to absorb selling. Glassnode reported net realized profit-taking briefly accelerating to about $17 million per hour (24-hour average) before fading, after which BTC slipped back below $70,000. Glassnode noted that geopolitical uncertainty appears to be compressing demand depth and reducing the market’s ability to absorb even moderate realization events.
Observers are drawing parallels to the Russia–Ukraine shock in 2022. Crypto commentator Carlitosway pointed out that after Russia’s February 24 attack, Bitcoin initially sold off, then rallied roughly 24% over the next four weeks before later falling about 64% by November 2022. A similar pattern — an early rally followed by slowing momentum — has been seen this month; BTC climbed nearly 10% at one point since the conflict began before the advance lost steam.
Analysts attribute the current softness to persistent liquidity pressure, higher energy costs and forced selling during stress episodes, all of which undermine follow-through demand. That dynamic suggests a longer stabilization phase while capital rebuilds and selling pressure eases.
Crypto analyst Finish suggested a recovery may follow a deeper corrective bottom near $55,000, adding that until Iran-related tensions ease it will likely be difficult for Bitcoin to resume a robust uptrend given the current risk-off environment and substantial equity market capital losses.
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