Key points:
– Bitcoin climbed back to about $68,000 after US equities rose following President Trump’s comments about pursuing ways to end the US–Israel–Iran conflict without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
– Derivatives show caution: puts trade at a premium to calls and demand for leveraged bullish exposure is low.
Bitcoin rallied to roughly $68,000 on Monday, lifting alongside gains in the S&P 500 after President Trump suggested the administration could seek an end to the regional conflict even if the Strait of Hormuz remained partially closed. Despite the price strength, derivatives markets reveal persistent caution among professional traders and market makers.
A short dip toward $66,000 came after a Google research claim that the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP) might be solvable with about 20 times less quantum computing power than previously thought. Market participants quickly pointed out that the large number of entangled logical qubits required for a practical attack remains far beyond current quantum hardware, blunting immediate alarm.
On the futures side, the annualized premium for monthly Bitcoin futures over spot was about 2% on Tuesday, essentially unchanged from the previous week. Readings below roughly 4% generally signal weak appetite for bullish leverage, since long positions typically pay a premium for longer-dated contracts. Even a short-lived move above $71,000 on Wednesday did not translate into sustained buying pressure.
Macro developments are also shaping sentiment. Bitcoin has stayed above $66,000 for the past week while the S&P 500 hit a seven-month low on Monday and crude oil topped $100 per barrel. Higher fuel prices have trimmed expectations for US rate cuts: CME FedWatch shows traders now put under a 10% probability on Fed easing by July, down sharply from roughly 75% a month earlier. Elevated rates tend to favor fixed-income assets, weigh on consumer spending and corporate growth, and can add strain to the labor market—factors that can dampen appetite for risk assets.
Options flow highlights elevated fear. On Tuesday, Bitcoin put options traded at a roughly 17% premium to calls, a skew level usually seen when downside concern is pronounced. A more balanced market typically posts a put-call skew in the roughly -6% to +6% range; that neutrality last appeared in mid-January. The current skew suggests large players and market makers are reluctant to carry downside exposure, even after Bitcoin has fallen about 23% so far in 2026.
The market’s steadiness near $67,000 implies the quantum-related headlines were largely discounted, but other forces help explain the muted enthusiasm. Some traders appear to be pricing in potential economic stimulus in response to recession risks—measures that often lift stocks more quickly than Bitcoin. For the moment, many participants still treat Bitcoin as a risky asset rather than a safe haven, which helps account for the cautious tone in derivatives. That said, tepid demand for leveraged longs doesn’t necessarily mean the market expects a return to sub-$60,000 prices.
This piece is informational and not investment advice. All trading carries risk; readers should conduct independent research and consult professional advisors before making financial decisions.