Sellers returned to the Bitcoin market Thursday as BTC slipped below $70,000, prompting analysts to flag late-stage bear characteristics driven by pronounced fear and elevated realized and unrealized losses.
Quick summary
– Market signals point toward a later-stage bear environment: extreme fear readings and a large share of supply held at a loss.
– Entity-adjusted realized profits have collapsed by roughly 96%, suggesting demand exhaustion.
– Immediate focus: $70,000 area. Deeper support sits in the $65,000–$60,000 zone; historic realized-price support is near ~$54,000.
Holder losses, on-chain indicators
Bitcoin’s pullback now exceeds 44% from the $126,000 all-time high on Oct. 6, 2025. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has fallen below 0.25 — placing BTC in a hope/fear band — and roughly 40% of circulating supply is estimated to be held at a loss, according to CryptoQuant analyst The Enigma Trader. The Fear & Greed Index is in the Extreme Fear range at 15.
A sustained NUPL recovery above 0.25 would historically align with a shift toward optimism and stronger momentum, but current structure resembles prior bear cycles where NUPL dipped below zero before a bottom formed. Glassnode reports the 7-day simple moving average of relative unrealized losses has stabilized near 15%, an elevated level that usually resolves only with time, further price declines, or a large inflow of fresh capital.
Realized profits and demand
Entity-adjusted realized profit has plunged from roughly $3 billion per day in July 2025 to under $0.1 billion — a drop of more than 96% — which on-chain analysts interpret as a sign that profitable sellers and near-term on-chain liquidity have thinned. CryptoQuant’s Crypto Dan noted that some indicators leave open a possible $60,000 bottom, but said more consistent confirmation is needed before declaring a true low.
Key price levels to watch
– Immediate: $70,000. Bitcoin is defending the 1w–1m cohort cost basis at about $70,200, which Glassnode identifies as a developing support floor; accumulation here remains modest, leaving it vulnerable to a breakdown.
– Support below: $65,000–$60,000 is the nearer support band. A larger breakdown could expose the realized price near $54,000, a historically relevant level that coincided with the 2022 bear-market low.
– Upside resistance: the 1m–3m cohort cost basis sits around $82,200, with concentrated short-term holder supply above $84,000. That supply could amplify selling if price returns to those levels.
Technical views
Technical analyst CryptoPatel called the recent $76,000 swing a lower high and said higher-timeframe structure remains tilted lower, with a next notable area of interest below $50,000 if bearish momentum continues. He also warned of a bearish order block between $86,000 and $90,000 should $76,000 be cleared. A weekly close back below the 20-day exponential moving average, near $70,303, could hasten a move toward the $62,500–$60,000 support zone.
Bottom line
On-chain metrics and price structure suggest a market in which fear and depleted profitable selling are prominent. Key levels to monitor are the $70,000 area for near-term support, $65,000–$60,000 as the next defense band, and the realized-price region near $54,000 on a larger breakdown. Overhead resistance and concentrated short-term supply around $82,000–$84,000, and potential order blocks higher, remain important for any rally.
This is not investment advice. All trading and investment decisions carry risk; readers should do their own research and consider their circumstances before acting. Cointelegraph and the analysts cited do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information presented.