Bitcoin (BTC) started the final full week of April holding a green weekly candle even as renewed US‑Iran tensions and multiple resistance levels cast uncertainty over further upside.
Weekly picture and near‑term bias
Bitcoin closed the week with modest gains, reclaiming a weekly green candle despite late selling that pushed prices briefly below $74,000. Trading resumed with a partial recovery, but traders remain cautious given geopolitical jitters involving the US, Israel and Iran.
The nearest technical hurdle is the 21‑week exponential moving average (EMA), sitting around $78,400. Analyst Rekt Capital flagged a rejection from that EMA and suggested that a retest of the double‑bottom top near $73,000 could validate the breakout for bulls if weekly closes continue to hold.
Several market participants expect rangebound trade over coming weeks. CrypNuevo sees BTC/USD capped near $80,000 through the next month, noting upside may be limited until geopolitical clarity improves. Michaël van de Poppe pointed out a CME futures gap around $77,300 and said that if the current bounce persists, new highs could arrive this week.
$81,000 as the “final boss”
Elliott Wave work from Decode highlights roughly $81,000 as the key resistance to overcome. BTC is currently trading between the 200‑week and 21‑week EMAs, and Decode describes the $81,000 zone as a “final boss” level that would simplify bullish wave counts and eliminate some near‑term bearish scenarios.
That level also aligns with the average entry price for many institutional buyers of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Short‑term holders (STH) show a slightly higher average cost basis — near $83,500, per CryptoQuant — while the STH spent output profit ratio (SOPR) remains close to breakeven. CryptoQuant notes a sustained SOPR above 1 would indicate STHs realizing profits, a healthy sign if it isn’t excessive.
ETF inflows and investor cost basis
April’s risk‑on appetite drove sizable inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over a five‑day stretch ETFs added more than 25,000 BTC, one of the biggest accumulation bursts since early 2025. Farside Investors recorded a single‑day net inflow exceeding $660 million on Friday, the largest daily pickup since January.
CryptoQuant reports that ETF holdings by BTC are at their highest level since November 2025. While accumulation has recovered after declines since October, the average ETF investor entry price remains close to $81,000 — a psychological threshold noted by Bitwise’s Andre Dragosch because it sits above current spot.
Geopolitical risk could unwind recent gains
Macro data is light this week, so markets are fixated on geopolitics. A return to heightened hostilities in the Middle East has traders reassessing the odds of higher oil and the potential for inflationary spillover. Mosaic Asset Company warned that intensifying conflict could reverse the recent bullish momentum across crypto and other risk assets.
WTI crude, which had eased on ceasefire hopes, rebounded toward $90 per barrel after tensions spiked. S&P 500 futures opened modestly lower, and Mosaic pointed to warning signs under the equities rally — fewer stocks making new highs and weakening institutional buying pressure — which could constrain further gains in risk assets.
Active supply and downside risk remain muted
Despite the rally to multi‑week highs, the average active Bitcoin holder remains slightly underwater. Glassnode’s True Market Mean (TMM), which filters out dormant or lost coins to estimate the active supply’s cost basis, sits near $78,200. BTC has traded below the TMM for more than 75 days in this episode.
Historically, stretches beneath the TMM have produced varied outcomes: some episodes ended in days, others lasted many months with deeper drawdowns. Glassnode’s CryptoVizArt describes the current pattern as a “milder path” compared with some prior selloffs, but cautions that 75 days is still early and deeper bottoms have sometimes required longer periods below TMM. Reclaiming and holding above the TMM would normally signal that active holders are back in profit and could mark a clearer momentum reset.
What to watch this week
– Price action around the 21‑week EMA (~$78,400) and the $73,000 double‑bottom top for confirmation.
– Whether BTC can decisively clear and hold above ~$81,000, which would relieve several bearish scenarios.
– ETF flows and investor cost bases near $81,000; a sustained SOPR above 1 would show short‑term holders taking profits.
– Geopolitical headlines and oil moves that could pressure risk assets if the Middle East conflict escalates again.
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Readers should perform their own research and consider their risk tolerance before making investment decisions.