Bitcoin (BTC) begins the last full week of April navigating renewed US‑Iran war fears while multiple resistance levels line up overhead.
Key points:
– Bitcoin remains green on weekly time frames with several nearby price levels in focus.
– Elliott Wave analysis highlights $81,000 as Bitcoin bulls’ next “final boss.”
– A resurgent US‑Iran war risks undoing recent crypto and risk‑asset gains.
– Bitcoin ETFs saw major inflows, but investors’ cost basis remains near $81,000.
– Glassnode’s true market mean shows the current bear drawdown remains “mild.”
BTC price can still make “new highs” this week
Bitcoin closed the week with a green weekly candle despite late sellers pushing price below $74,000. TradingView data showed a modest recovery at the new week’s open, even as geopolitical escalation fears between the US, Israel and Iran linger.
Price faces multiple overhead resistances, the nearest being the 21‑week exponential moving average (EMA) around $78,400. Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted rejection from the 21‑week EMA and suggested a retest of the top of the double bottom near $73,000 could “confirm the breakout” for bulls if the weekly close held as it did.
Other traders expect rangebound action. CrypNuevo forecast BTC/USD would likely trade with an $80,000 ceiling for the next month, noting uncertainty about upside if the US‑Iran conflict definitively ends. Michaël van de Poppe pointed to a CME futures gap around $77,300 and said he expected new highs this week if the bounce continued.
$81,000 emerges as Bitcoin’s “final boss”
Decode’s Elliott Wave analysis emphasized $81,000 as the key resistance to clear. BTC/USD currently trades between the 200‑week and 21‑week EMAs, and Decode called $81,000 the “final boss,” which narrows Elliott Wave counts and removes some short‑term bearish scenarios.
The $81,000 level is also significant because it approximates the average entry price for institutional buyers of US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Short‑term holders’ (STH) cost basis is slightly higher — around $83,500 per CryptoQuant — and the STH spent output profit ratio (SOPR) is hovering near breakeven. CryptoQuant noted that a sustained move of SOPR above 1 would indicate STHs are realizing profits, which is generally positive if not excessive.
Iran war comeback risks risk‑asset “unwind”
Macro prints are light for the week, but markets are focused on geopolitics. The sudden escalation in the Middle East has traders reconsidering the prospect of higher oil prices and potential inflation pass‑through. Mosaic Asset Company warned that intensifying hostilities could unwind the bullish action of recent weeks.
WTI crude, which had fallen amid ceasefire hopes, rebounded toward $90 per barrel after renewed tensions. S&P 500 futures opened the week modestly lower. Mosaic also noted warning signs beneath the equities rally: fewer stocks breaking out to new highs and fading buying pressure from certain institutional investors, which could limit further upside in risk assets.
Risk‑on institutions wake up to Bitcoin
Risk appetite earlier in April produced notable inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Over a five‑day span ETFs added more than 25,000 BTC, one of the largest accumulations since April 2025. Farside Investors data showed a single‑day net inflow of more than $660 million on Friday — the largest since January.
CryptoQuant observed ETF holdings in BTC terms are at their highest since November 2025, and while ETF accumulation has recovered following declines since October, ETF investors’ average cost basis remains around $81,000. Bitwise’s Andre Dragosch highlighted the psychological importance of that level as it sits above current spot.
Bitcoin price downside still on “milder path”
Despite the recent move to 10‑week highs, the average Bitcoin holder is still underwater. Glassnode’s true market mean (TMM) — which filters out dormant or lost coins to measure the active supply’s cost basis — sits near $78,200. Bitcoin has been trading below TMM for over 75 days in this episode.
Historically, trading below TMM has preceded varied outcomes: episodes have lasted from days to more than 11 months with drawdowns ranging widely. Glassnode’s CryptoVizArt noted that current action plots a “milder path” than some prior drawdowns, but cautioned 75 days is still early; previous significant bottoms came after many more months in some cycles. Reclaiming and stabilizing above the TMM would historically signal active holders returning to profit and could mark a stronger momentum reset.
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