A number of crypto analysts warn Bitcoin could fall again—potentially to around $50,000—before any sustained rally takes hold. Trader and author Ivan Liljeqvist posted on X that he does not view the recent $60,000 area as a definitive bottom, calling the overall trend “still down” and describing recent bounces as small relative to the larger decline. He said the sort of broad bull-market strength normally seen is “just not here right now.”
Analyst Merlijn Enkelaar outlined a scenario in which Bitcoin moves through a second bearish phase following accumulation, including what he termed a “manipulation phase” that could push prices toward $50,000 before a later distribution stage. LVRG Research director Nick Ruck told Cointelegraph some market participants see $50,000 as the last notable accumulation zone before a more durable recovery, arguing such a drop would be a healthy reset given macro headwinds and weak capital rotation.
Ruck also suggested that growing institutional involvement in crypto markets creates steadier buying demand at current levels, which could help power a stronger upswing once any final flush is complete. Other commentators express similar caution: the analyst known as “symbiote” described the higher timeframe as “super bearish” and said he’s waiting for one more large decline to either $59,000 or $50,000. Another analyst, Jelle, pointed to a bearish flag pattern that remains active and typically signals continuation to the downside.
These cautious views persist despite a recent rally that pushed Bitcoin toward the mid-$70,000s, a move attributed in part to renewed optimism around a potential US–Iran agreement to end weeks of conflict that had weighed on markets.
Ruck noted Bitcoin is trading roughly 40% below its most recent all-time high, and he contrasted current conditions with prior cycles that were driven more by retail speculation and produced far deeper drawdowns—about 82% after the 2017 peak and roughly 77% after 2021. He said this cycle’s different macro structure and institutional participation mean it might not experience the “idealized” 60% drawdown some expect.
Fidelity Digital Assets has reached a similar conclusion, saying downside risk in 2026 appears less severe than in previous cycles.
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