Ether’s on-chain and derivatives metrics have weakened over the past month, prompting warnings that renewed selling could emerge if price drops below the $1,700 area. Several indicators point to growing exchange supply, muted fresh demand and a retreat in futures activity — a combination that raises the risk of further downside.
Exchange and depositor flows
CryptoQuant data highlighted by analyst Pelin Ay shows roughly 57,700 ETH net flowed into Binance over recent days. Large inflows to Binance — one of the most liquid venues — are often interpreted as increased selling intent because assets moved to exchanges can be more readily converted to fiat or other tokens.
At the same time, new depositor activity remains subdued: only about 320 new ETH-depositing addresses were recorded, a count well below levels seen in prior demand surges. That muted participation suggests limited new capital entering the market and leaves price stability dependent on existing holders rather than fresh buyers.
Supply-side dynamics
Daily ETH issuance sits near 2,791 ETH, a relatively low figure since the EIP-1559 fee burn changes in 2021, but continued net inflows to exchanges add available supply that could pressure price if holders decide to sell. Analysts say the elevated net inflows raise the probability of another selling wave, particularly if ETH rallies up toward nearby resistance zones and draws profit-taking.
Derivatives and leverage
Derivatives markets have cooled markedly. Aggregate Ether futures open interest fell to about $10.3 billion from roughly $15 billion a month earlier — a decline of roughly 31%, representing the lowest open interest across exchanges since April 2025. Estimated leverage has also dropped, with the estimated leverage ratio (ELR) sliding from an early-June peak of 1.10 to around 0.83. That unwind is one of the largest since late-2025 moves.
Lower leverage tends to reduce short-term volatility and speculative positioning, but it also signals weaker conviction among traders and can limit the size of buying thrusts when sentiment improves.
Technical context and demand zones
On the weekly timeframe, ETH is down about 30% over the past 42 days and is trading in a key demand band between $1,700 and $1,400. The April 2025 low near $1,384 is the nearest external liquidity target if selling intensifies. Beneath that lies the deeper January 2023 demand zone between roughly $1,289 and $1,071.
Some traders point to early bottoming signs: weekly RSI sits near 31 after a historically low daily RSI reading of 11 during the recent sell-off, which improves the odds of at least a temporary bounce. Others caution that ETH/BTC remains in a downtrend, and the $1,400–$1,700 range is where buyers and sellers are most actively positioned for now.
Implications
Taken together — larger exchange inflows, low new depositor counts, falling futures open interest and reduced leverage — market structure favors caution. If ETH tests resistance on a relief rally while exchange supply remains elevated, analysts warn that selling pressure could re-emerge and push price below the $1,700 demand band.
This summary draws on on-chain and derivatives data and commentary from market analysts. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All trading carries risk; readers should do their own research and consider consulting a financial professional before making investment decisions.