Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be replaying the end of its 2022 bear market “nearly perfectly,” according to a fresh BTC price analysis.
Key points:
– Bitcoin’s stochastic RSI is reportedly repeating the conditions that marked the end of the last bear market.
– Recent local lows and the current recovery resemble patterns from early 2023.
– Traders are also watching standard RSI for a potential weekly bottom signal.
Bitcoin stochastic RSI echoes 2023 rebound
In an X post on Monday, trader Quantum Ascend highlighted near-identical moves on Bitcoin’s stochastic relative strength index (stoch RSI), a faster-moving derivative of the traditional RSI that signals overbought and oversold conditions. Stoch RSI marks oversold below 30/100 and overbought above 70/100, but it oscillates more rapidly than standard RSI.
Quantum Ascend argued a key long-term bullish setup is forming again: “RSI at the EXACT SAME point on the Daily as it was in 2022,” he wrote. His comparative chart shows stoch RSI and price forming a double bottom before shooting higher in early 2023, after BTC/USD found a multiyear low near $15,600 that became the bear-market bottom. Now, Quantum Ascend says, the pattern is “playing out nearly perfectly,” with stoch RSI attempting to clear its 50/100 midpoint after two local lows in late January and late March.
BTC price counts down to bear flag decision
RSI-based signals have been emerging in 2026 even while price action remains muted. Market participants are watching weekly standard RSI for a bullish divergence with price, which would mirror the early-2023 setup. Trader CryptoJelleNL noted a potential higher low forming on weekly RSI and suggested giving it a few more weeks to develop.
Earlier in the year, weekly RSI hit its lowest recorded level, a trough not yet matched in 2026 per TradingView data.
Still, bearish technical risks persist. Some traders warn of a possible bear-flag breakdown on the daily chart that could push prices lower. Analyst Aksel Kibar said the coming days should clarify whether the daily pattern is repeating.
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