Veteran trader Peter Brandt expects it could be more than a year before Bitcoin returns to its October all-time high of $126,100. “I do not see a new price high in 2026,” Brandt told Cointelegraph, adding that a new peak might not arrive until the second quarter of 2027 — though he acknowledged this is speculative.
Prediction markets echo that caution. Polymarket participants assign only about a 15% chance that Bitcoin will reclaim $120,000 in 2026.
Analysts remain split on how Bitcoin will perform next year. The four-year cycle theory points to a weaker 2026, while others argue growing institutional demand may disrupt that pattern and push prices higher.
At the time of publication Bitcoin was trading near $66,329, down roughly 3.5% over the past week and about 47% below the October peak, per CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin fell to a yearly low of $60,000 on Feb. 6; Brandt said prices could retest or drop “slightly lower” than levels seen in September or October. If that low holds, he said, it would mark the bear-cycle bottom and the start of a new bull market.
Brandt said his core view of Bitcoin remains unchanged: it is a store of wealth, and any utility built on top of Bitcoin could affect its price. He is neutral to bearish on other cryptocurrencies.
From a liquidity perspective, analyst Willy Woo tweeted that Bitcoin is about one-third of the way through the bear market. Anthony Scaramucci of SkyBridge also described Bitcoin as being in the bear phase of the four-year cycle, noting that belief in such cycles can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Market flows have shown recent weakness: spot Bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows of $296.18 million for the week ending Friday, breaking a four-week inflow streak. Sentiment measures reflect investor caution amid geopolitical tensions: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has hovered in “extreme fear” since March 20, registering a score of 8.
Not everyone is bearish for the year. In January, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee said he still expects Bitcoin to set a new all-time high in 2026, while warning investors to prepare for a potentially painful decline across crypto and equity markets.
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