Prediction markets have trimmed the likelihood that former FTX CEO Sam Bankman‑Fried will receive a presidential pardon this year. Polymarket currently prices the chance at roughly 11% and Kalshi around 9%, with both markets lowering odds after a March 21 CNN interview featuring his parents, Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried — Polymarket down about two percentage points and Kalshi about one.
In the interview, Bankman‑Fried’s parents called his fraud conviction mistaken and described ongoing legal moves to overturn it. They acknowledged that Alameda Research borrowed customer funds from FTX but asserted the money “was not used improperly,” saying Alameda “always had more than enough security to cover everything” and that customers were repaid. They said new testimony would challenge three key government assertions: that FTX was insolvent on Nov. 11, 2022; that customers could not be repaid; and that Alameda ran a recurring multi‑billion‑dollar deficit on FTX.
Bankman‑Fried filed an appeal in February 2026 and also sought the trial judge’s removal, alleging “extreme prejudice.” Separately, FTX’s restructuring team had pursued civil claims to recover millions, accusing Bankman and Fried of fraudulent transfers — including a $10 million cash gift and a $16.4 million Bahamian property. That Delaware Bankruptcy Court action was dismissed without prejudice in February 2025, leaving the option to refile.
The family framed the prosecution as politically motivated. Fried told CNN she believed the Biden administration wanted to “destroy crypto” and used prosecutions for political ends. The family has tried to counter a strictly Democratic label for Bankman‑Fried by noting donations to some Republicans and saying he became disillusioned with the Biden administration’s crypto policies.
Seeking clemency, the family has reportedly explored contacts in former President Trump’s orbit since he took office. But political realities make that route uncertain: pro‑crypto Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis publicly urged the president not to grant clemency, saying Bankman‑Fried “hurt a lot of people,” and Trump has indicated he would not pardon him. Observers note pardons are sometimes arranged through well‑connected lobbyists or granted for political loyalty, yet public and political opposition appears strong in this case.
The family has continued public efforts to shape opinion; in mid‑March, Bankman‑Fried — via legal proxies — posted support for Trump’s decision to bomb Iran. On prediction markets, unrelated geopolitical outcomes are priced much higher than a pardon for Bankman‑Fried: Polymarket, for example, places the odds of a U.S.‑Iran ceasefire by year’s end at about 78%.
This article is editorial content from Cointelegraph Features and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice.
