Markets and crypto fell Monday as US-Iran tensions escalated for a fourth week, producing volatile moves in oil and broad risk assets.
US President Donald Trump posted that the US would hit and obliterate Iranian power plants—starting with the largest—if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran responded that it would retaliate against any strikes on its power or water infrastructure by targeting US and Israeli assets in the Gulf and threatened to close the Strait, a critical oil shipping route.
Bitcoin dropped 1.8% over 24 hours to $68,160 after briefly dipping below $67,600 late Sunday. The decline helped trigger about $336.3 million in crypto liquidations over the past day, with roughly $100 million tied to failed Bitcoin long positions, according to CoinGlass.
Rachael Lucas, an analyst at BTC Markets, said crypto is currently moving in lockstep with equities rather than acting as a haven. Market sentiment is very weak, she noted, with the Fear and Greed Index deep in ‘‘extreme fear’’ at 8.
Asian markets fell on the headlines: Australia and New Zealand both slipped about 0.8%, while Japan dropped more than 4%. Oil was volatile—US crude briefly topped $100 a barrel in early trading before pulling back to around $97.20 and later trading near $99.30. Brent surged past $114 per barrel at one point before settling just under $113.
Lucas said crypto’s near-term direction hinges on de-escalation in the Iran situation and decisions by the US Federal Reserve. She added that Brent’s jump is feeding inflation expectations and has pushed the probability of a Fed rate hike from zero to 12.4% in a single week, a macro repricing that crypto markets are likely to follow until clarity returns.
On technicals, Lucas identified $68,000 as immediate Bitcoin support, with $65,800 the next meaningful floor if that level breaks. For a credible recovery narrative, she said Bitcoin would need to reclaim $71,500. She also pointed to ongoing institutional demand—$1.43 billion in net inflows to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds so far this month—and argued that when sentiment is very low but institutional infrastructure remains strong, the conditions for a recovery can form even if timing is uncertain.
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