The XRP market has reached a sensitive stage, with a large share of holders now underwater and questions rising over whether the token is nearing capitulation or preparing for the next cycle.
Glassnode on-chain data shows about 36.8 billion XRP are held at a loss, representing roughly $50.8 billion in unrealized losses at current prices. Analysts note XRP recently fell below its aggregate holder cost basis, a psychological level that can increase selling pressure.
The network’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), using a seven-day exponential moving average, has declined from 1.16 in July 2025 to approximately 0.96, indicating more investors are selling at losses than profits and tipping on-chain profitability into negative territory.
Market commentator EGRAG observed that prior cycles have typically ended via either price-based capitulation—a rapid, steep sell-off that flushes weak hands—or time-based capitulation, where prolonged sideways action gradually erodes momentum before a rebound.
Despite weakness, institutional interest persists. The largest U.S. XRP exchange-traded fund now leads total XRP ETF assets above $1 billion, and Ripple has bolstered its institutional infrastructure: Ripple Prime recently joined the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) clearing system.
Some industry projections forecast that cross-border payments on XRP infrastructure could reach $10 trillion by 2030. For now, market attention is fixed on whether current unrealized losses will deepen into broader capitulation or mark the final stages of consolidation ahead of the next expansion.