Bitcoin’s (BTC) climb to $76,000 lifted investor optimism, but on-chain metrics point to an early-stage recovery with persistent volatility rather than a confirmed bull market.
Glassnode notes BTC has entered a relatively “open” zone between $72,000 and $82,000, defined by the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), where there is less realized resistance and price may move more freely in the short term if momentum persists.
A clearer signal would be broader market profitability. The share of Bitcoin supply in profit has risen to roughly 60%, a level commonly seen in early recoveries. Glassnode wrote that a sustained push above 75% would carry much more weight as confirmation of early bull market conditions, while rejection near current levels would support a bear-market-recovery narrative.
Sell pressure remains a key test. As BTC rose above $74,000, short-term holders accelerated profit-taking, with realized gains reaching about $18.4 million per hour. This mirrors prior failed rallies when selling into strength capped upside. If Bitcoin can absorb that profit-taking and hold support above $70,000, the path toward $78,000–$82,000 becomes more likely.
From a technical perspective, larger time frames still favor caution. Daily and weekly charts show a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, so a bullish market structure is not yet established. For a meaningful trend shift, BTC needs to clear and sustain above the prior lower high near $97,855. That region also aligns with the Fibonacci “golden zone” between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels—an area traders watch for trend-reversal decisions. A clean breakout above this zone followed by consolidation would signal strong demand and increase the odds of a long-term rally.
CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle indicator reflects the cautious view. The indicator improved to -0.72 from -1 earlier in the month but remains in bearish territory and far from confirming a trend reversal. Full bull confirmation would require the indicator to move above 1, indicating sustained positive momentum. An earlier sign to monitor is a move above the bull-bear 365-day moving average, currently around -0.23, which filters out short-term noise to show higher-timeframe trend direction.
Related: Bitcoin tests old 2021 top as gold falls to six-week lows under $4.7K
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.