Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing the average entry price for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors at roughly $79,900, as the gap between market price and the ETF cost basis narrows alongside on-chain signs of renewed buying.
Bitcoin ETF breakeven level nears key trend test
Sustained gains above $70,000 have refocused attention on ETF holders’ breakeven. That cost-basis area acted as support in mid-2024, and a move above it would bring many ETF investors back to breakeven. Flow data shows the ETF flows flipped to net positive after persistent outflows through mid-February, according to researcher Axel Adler Jr. The seven-day average has shifted to steady inflows, with daily creations peaking above 3,300 BTC on March 2. ETF holdings rose from 1,264,982 BTC to 1,291,618 BTC — a 26,636 BTC increase over the past month.
The ETF cost basis also aligns with a key daily trend: a decisive move through this range would reclaim the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) on the daily chart for the first time since October 2025. A sustained break above the 100-day EMA would signal a shift into a longer-term uptrend and help reinforce bullish momentum.
Bitcoin buyers begin to outpace sellers
Order-flow across major venues shows buyers gradually outpacing sellers. Analyst Darkfost noted the 30-day volume delta on Binance and Coinbase has turned positive after heavy selling in February, with retail and institutional flows leaning toward accumulation. Futures data supports the shift: Amr Taha observed Binance’s cumulative volume delta (CVD) has recovered by nearly $6 billion from its lows, reflecting aggressive buying since BTC traded near $63,000, though the metric remains below zero and some prior selling pressure persists.
Short-term holder metrics also back the improvement. CryptoQuant’s spent-output profit ratio (SOPR) for short-term holders moved back above 1, indicating coins are being sold around or above their cost and that selling pressure has eased. Analyst miracleyoon noted recent capitulation signals appear to have flushed out weaker hands, though not as severely as the August 5, 2024 event.
Overall, the combined fund flows, exchange order flow, futures CVD, and SOPR suggest Bitcoin is on track to test the $80,000 area, and a sustained move above the ETF breakeven zone could define the trend’s strength in the coming weeks.
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