Bitcoin could mount a short-lived rally that traps optimistic traders before the prevailing downtrend resumes, on-chain analyst Willy Woo warned. In an X post, Woo wrote “Bull trap forming,” suggesting a deceptive breakout that might last “out to [the] end of April.” His view is driven by liquidity dynamics rather than absolute price levels, and he said he would revise it if substantial long-term capital returns to the market.
From a longer liquidity perspective, Woo said Bitcoin is “solidly in the middle of its bear market.” He noted that after sharp downward moves, BTC often trades sideways and attempts rallies that test resistance. Bitcoin has fallen roughly 46.82% from its October all-time highs near $126,000, trading around $67,012 at the time of publication, per CoinMarketCap.
On-chain data and sentiment indicators support the cautious stance. Santiment highlighted that whales have been selling aggressively while retail investors accumulate below $70,000, a pattern that historically signals the correction is not finished. CryptoQuant and other analysts have similarly stated Bitcoin remains in a bear market despite recent relief rallies.
Woo also pointed out that investor flows have shown a “consistent recovery” since mid-February, even though BTC failed to hold the mid-$70,000s after briefly reaching $74,000. Other observers, including analyst Benjamin Cowen, consider 2026 a bear-market year unlikely to produce new all-time highs. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, after a brief improvement, has retreated back toward “extreme fear.”
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