Key takeaways:
– Bitcoin slipped below $63,000 after weak U.S. jobs data and rising investor risk aversion tied to AI capital spending.
– Options market prices imply roughly a 6% chance of BTC reaching $90,000 by late March.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell beneath $63,000 on Thursday, marking its lowest level since November 2024 and roughly a 30% decline from the January 28 peak near $90,500. Traders say worsening macro sentiment — driven by softer U.S. employment indicators and concerns about heavy AI-related capital expenditure — has made an immediate bullish reversal unlikely.
Deribit option prices underscore that skepticism. The March 27 call that would allow purchase of Bitcoin at $90,000 traded near $522 on Thursday; standard option-pricing assumptions imply that level reflects under a 6% probability of BTC reaching $90,000 by late March. By contrast, the March 27 $50,000 put traded around $1,380, implying about a 20% chance of a deeper decline.
Two themes have intensified selling pressure. First, renewed talk of quantum computing risks led some strategists and allocators to trim Bitcoin exposure over speculative fears that future quantum advances could threaten current cryptographic private keys. Second, market participants worry companies holding sizable on-chain BTC reserves — some financed with debt or equity — could be forced to sell if prices remain weak. MicroStrategy, the largest publicly traded holder of on-chain Bitcoin, recently saw its enterprise value slip below its cost basis; other corporate holders face similar valuation gaps.
Risk-off sentiment spread beyond crypto. Silver plunged roughly 36% from its January 29 record high within a week. Several large public companies — including Thomson Reuters, PayPal, Robinhood and AppLovin — saw stock declines that roughly mirrored Bitcoin’s weekly losses.
Labor-market data added to the dour backdrop. U.S. employers announced 108,435 layoffs in January, up 118% from January 2025 and the highest January total since 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Meanwhile, tech-sector headlines intensified concerns about the timing and payback of investments: Google said 2026 capital expenditure will rise to $180 billion from $91.5 billion in 2025, and Qualcomm lowered guidance after suppliers shifted capacity toward high-bandwidth memory for data centers. Traders fear AI investments may take longer to generate returns amid competition, energy constraints and chip shortages.
Taken together, these factors have raised risk aversion and weighed on Bitcoin. The slide to about $62,300 on Thursday reflects growing uncertainty over economic growth and employment, which options traders and other market participants interpret as reducing the likelihood of a rapid rebound to $90,000 by March.
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