Zcash (ZEC) jumped more than 30% in 24 hours to $336.50 after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran, leading a broader relief rally across risk assets. Monero (XMR) and Dash (DASH) also rose, up about 3% and 8% respectively.
Key takeaways:
– A 2021-style fractal warns ZEC price could fall ~40% in the coming weeks.
– Over $50 million in long leverage sits below current prices, leaving ZEC exposed to a possible crash.
ZEC rally risks becoming a 2021-style bull trap
ZEC’s move resembles its 2021 setup. After peaking near $392 then entering a prolonged downcycle, ZEC staged multiple sharp bounces after testing the 0.238 Fibonacci retracement (around $85 in 2021), but upside faded under a descending trendline resistance.
Today’s structure is similar: the 0.236 Fib level near $197 is acting as strong support while a descending trendline caps rallies. A continued rebound could push ZEC toward the 0.5 Fib level near $370, which also aligns with the trendline resistance. If bulls fail to break above that trendline, the token could pull back toward the $197–$200 zone, making the current advance look like a 2021-style bull trap.
Conversely, a decisive breakout above the trendline would invalidate that trap scenario and could trigger a falling-wedge breakout, with a measured upside target near $1,200. Several analysts, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and Alphractal’s Joao Wedson, have previously forecasted ZEC to reach $1,000 or higher.
ZEC liquidation data raises downside risks
Derivatives liquidation maps point to asymmetric risk to the downside. On Binance, ZEC/USDT contracts show roughly $3.81 million of cumulative short liquidations if price rallies above $380 in the coming week. By contrast, about $50.56 million in cumulative long positions could be wiped out if ZEC falls below $260.
Markets often gravitate toward areas with concentrated leverage. For ZEC, the bigger cluster of leveraged positions sits below current prices, where long liquidations greatly exceed potential short liquidations above. The largest single liquidation pocket appears near $305–$306, containing about $1.76 million in leveraged positions, making it a key near-term level to watch.
This asymmetric liquidation profile means sharp moves lower are possible if the rally falters and long stops are triggered, even after the recent ceasefire-driven relief bounce.
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