Bitcoin (BTC) appears materially undervalued against gold and the broader money supply, a divergence that could presage a price reversal, Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin tech firm Jan3, said on X. Mow estimated BTC is roughly 24%–66% below its trend versus gold’s market capitalization or global money supply, while gold looks overextended.
Mow pointed to the Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, a statistical measure showing how far the ratio is from its historical average. A Z-score of 0 means the ratio sits at its long-term mean; positive readings show it trading above average, negative readings below. Historically, when the BTC-to-gold Z-score has fallen beneath -2, Bitcoin has later experienced “major” rallies. At the time of Mow’s post the Z-score was about -1.24.
TradingView data shows the metric plunged below -3 in November 2022 amid the collapse of crypto exchange FTX; Bitcoin subsequently rallied more than 150% over the following 12 months. A comparable pattern occurred during the March 2020 Covid crash, when the Z-score fell below -2 and BTC hit roughly $3,717 before surging over 300% in the next year and reaching the then all-time high near $69,000 by November 2021.
Gold futures for April delivery closed Friday at $5,247.90, and tokenized gold (PAXG) was trading around $5,404.14 at the time of reporting.
Mow’s outlook is contrarian to analysts who predict further downside for BTC amid investor uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Some market watchers have warned Bitcoin could head toward $50,000, noting price action may be echoing the 2022 bear market. BTC had fallen more than 50% from its prior peak to a low around $60,000 before a limited recovery to near $66,400 following recent Middle East developments.
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