XRP price fell below $1.50 over the weekend, its weakest level in more than 14 months, and a bearish technical setup indicates the downtrend could continue through February.
Key takeaways:
– XRP’s bear pennant on the four-hour chart targets $1.22.
– XRP futures open interest dropped to $2.61 billion, offering limited hope for bulls.
Price action and technical setup
On Saturday, XRP dropped about 14% from $1.75 to $1.50, breaking the $1.60 support for the first time since November 2024. The move put XRP into the breakdown phase of a bear pennant visible on the four-hour chart.
XRP fell below the pennant’s lower trendline, then rebounded to retest it. If the retest fails and a four-hour candle closes below roughly $1.58, the measured target of the bear pennant is $1.22 — about a 23% decline from current levels.
Analysts’ views
Pseudonymous analyst AltCryptoGems called the January recovery to $2.40 a “fakeout,” noting a fresh lower low and warning the market is “on the verge of a disastrous collapse in a huge no-support zone.”
Trader Alex Clay noted that after breaching the support of a double-bottom pattern at $1.60, the path is open for a move toward $1 or lower.
Support levels and historical comparison
Cointelegraph previously noted XRP’s next major support is near its aggregated realized price at $1.48. Losing that level would put the average holder underwater and mirror conditions from the 2022 bear phase that preceded an eventual 50% drawdown toward $0.30.
Order flow and open interest
The 90-day Spot Taker Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) shows taker buy volume has fallen sharply since early January, indicating waning buy-side interest. Historically, sharp drops in spot CVD have preceded 28%–50% price drawdowns within weeks.
A potential offset for bears is declining futures open interest (OI), which fell to $2.61 billion on Wednesday from $4.55 billion on Jan. 6. When OI drops alongside prices, it can signal a weakening bearish trend or a potential trend reversal, possibly allowing bulls to retest overhead resistance near $1.85 — a level that acted as support for much of 2025.
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