XRP (XRP) experienced its sharpest weekly sell-off since October 2025, echoing a 50% crash scenario seen in 2022.
Key takeaways:
– XRP faces extended downside risk if it breaks below $1.48 amid ongoing whale selling.
– Holding the $1.43–$1.48 band keeps a bullish recovery possible.
New XRP buyers are underwater
As of Monday, XRP was trading near $1.60, down more than 20% over the past week and well below the average cost basis for buyers from the past 12 months. The aggregated realized price — the mean cost basis of XRP in circulation — sits around $1.48, meaning many recent purchasers are now in the red.
A decisive drop under $1.48 would put the average holder underwater, a condition that resembles the 2022 bear phase that culminated in a severe drawdown toward roughly $0.30. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant data shows XRP’s 90-day whale flow remains net negative, indicating large holders are distributing rather than accumulating. When new entrants are already losing money, continued whale selling can swell overhead supply and sap rebound attempts.
Stablecoin outflows add to downside risks
Stablecoin flows onto exchanges turned sharply negative in late 2025, with 30-day net outflows hitting about $9.6 billion. Although outflows eased in January, net flows remained negative at roughly $4 billion, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. Lower stablecoin balances on exchanges reduce potential buying pressure, making it harder for XRP to climb above its realized price.
Price charts and risk of another 50% drop
XRP has been trading above its 100-2W exponential moving average (100-2W EMA) at about $1.43, close to the aggregated realized price of $1.48. The token could still slip into the $1.43–$1.48 support zone in February; its two-week relative strength index (RSI) near 38 has historically preceded reversals, suggesting a period of consolidation before any stronger recovery.
If the 100-2W EMA holds, XRP may spend weeks finding footing and could attempt a more decisive recovery in late Q1 or Q2 2026. Conversely, a clear break below the 100-2W EMA would likely invalidate that recovery scenario. In that case, XRP risks sliding toward its 200-2W EMA near $1 as early as March — a move that would put the price about 36% below current levels and echo the kind of breakdown that followed similar support losses in 2022.
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