XRP has been in an eight-month downtrend, yet momentum and onchain indicators now sit at levels that previously signalled macro bottoms. TradingView data shows the XRP/BTC ratio’s daily relative strength index (RSI) at 24 — the most oversold since October 2025. Similar lows in the ratio’s RSI marked past bottoms and preceded 65%–345% breakouts for XRP versus Bitcoin in late 2024 and 2025.
The XRP/BTC pair is trading inside a long consolidation range that has historically acted as a launching pad. The June 2025 bottom in this zone preceded a 61% rise in the ratio and a 92% XRP price rally to a multi-year high of $3.66. Other historical instances reinforce this level’s reliability in marking macro lows.
MVRV Z-score suggests XRP may be bottoming
XRP’s MVRV Z-score is hovering near zero, a level that historically aligns with accumulation zones and market troughs. When most holders are near breakeven, sell pressure tends to ease, indicating potential downside exhaustion. Comparable patterns in 2021, 2022 and 2024 preceded major rallies.
In late 2024, a similar MVRV Z-score coincided with a macro bottom at $0.30 and preceded a multi-month rise that saw XRP/USD climb about 500% to a multi-year high above $3. The 0.80 MVRV pricing band — historically associated with cycle bottoms — currently sits near $1.14, matching a 15-month low reached on Feb. 6. These onchain metrics point toward undervaluation and support the possibility of continued recovery toward $1.70 or higher.
Key support levels and risks
XRP/USD remains cautiously bullish while holding the $1.25–$1.30 support zone. Trader ChiefraT noted that XRP has sustained that major support zone since early Feb 2026 and suggested a short-term bounce to $1.45 is possible if it holds.
Cost-basis distribution shows about 1.73 billion XRP were acquired around this price zone, reinforcing its importance. Below that, the next defensive level is the $1.15 demand zone, where the 200-week simple moving average lies. A drop beneath $1.15 could open a free-fall toward the bear-flag measured target near $0.80, roughly 41% below the current price.
Holding $1.27–$1.30 would signal strength among bulls; to regain broader control they would need to push XRP toward the $1.61 range high.
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