A closely followed market analyst says XRP is tracing a pattern strikingly similar to the one that preceded its euphoric 2017 rally, raising the prospect of a large upside move if the structure holds.
Chart Nerd noted that in 2017 XRP spent roughly three months cooling off before retesting its three-month 20-EMA, shortly before a roughly 25x surge to the blow-off top. According to the analyst, 2025 is unfolding almost the same way: XRP broke out last year and has now completed a three-month pullback toward that same long-term EMA level.
If the setup repeats even halfway, Chart Nerd argues “we’re missing at least a 10x upside move,” which would still be far smaller than 2017’s rally. The view does not ignore the 2021 lower high but aligns with long-standing resistance dating to 2017 monthly closes and years of price suppression tied to the SEC lawsuit.
The structure remains intact unless XRP closes below its three-month 20-EMA, currently around $1.20.
Other analysts are reading recent volatility similarly. One trader said XRP briefly broke a key convergence zone below but quickly recovered, calling the dip a “fake breakout” intended to shake out sellers expecting a deeper decline. With that trap behind the market, the trader expects the convergence to resolve soon and a rally if XRP pushes decisively above the zone.
Near-term performance has softened: XRP slipped 3.22% in the past 24 hours to $2.06, lagging the broader market. Analysts point to a CoinShares ETF withdrawal, repeated failures to break the $2.25–$2.50 resistance band, and fresh whale inflows of 110 million XRP onto exchanges. Even so, XRP is up 11.37% over the week, and traders highlight the $2.10 78.6% Fibonacci level as the line that must hold to avoid a deeper pullback.
