Bitcoin traded range-bound through March, briefly rallying to about $75,000 before retreating into a $63,000–$71,000 band. Despite the consolidation, on-chain data reveal who is doing the selling.
Short-Term Holders Dominate Sell-Side Pressure
In a CryptoQuant QuickTake, pseudonymous analyst TeddyVision reports that Short-Term Holders (STHs) are the primary source of BTC flowing into spot exchanges. This conclusion comes from the Bitcoin: Exchange Inflow – Spent Output Age Bands – Spot Exchanges metric, which tracks the age distribution of coins deposited to spot exchanges and indicates whether recently acquired or long-held coins are being sent in for potential sale.
The dominant inflows are from the 0–12 month cohorts—STHs and some transitioning participants—while older cohorts (coins held more than 12 months) remain largely inactive. Occasional spikes in long-cohort activity appear event-driven rather than signs of sustained distribution. The pattern suggests weaker hands are supplying the market as stronger, long-term holders stay put. Historically, long-term holders tend to sell into strong upward momentum rather than during sideways consolidation.
Market Absorbs STH Supply As Structural Strength Builds Up
Notably, Bitcoin has held a steady range even as STH selling persists. Sustained short-term selling has previously driven sharp price drops, but since the consolidation began around February 6, increased STH outflows have not pushed price significantly lower.
TeddyVision points to the Coinbase Premium Index as further evidence of growing market absorption. U.S. spot market conditions had pushed the index into negative territory for extended periods, but as consolidation formed the premium moved off those extremes and downside pressure became less effective.
In broader terms, the market looks to be in a transitional phase: visible STH exits are revealing resilience beneath the surface. That said, this dynamic does not guarantee a price reversal or immediate rebound. At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $66,930, with little change over the previous 24 hours.
Source: CryptoQuant
BTC trading at $66,966 on the daily chart | Source: TradingView
Featured image from Investopedia, chart from TradingView
