Market analysts are coalescing around a simple, data-led test for when Bitcoin has truly bottomed — and several say the conditions for a definitive trough have not yet been met. Chain analyst and Alphractal CEO João Wedson lays out a two-phase structure tied to who is holding BTC.
Phase one is already visible: short-term holders are largely underwater, meaning many recent buyers sit at a loss. That condition typically signals rising stress and forced selling from weaker hands and often precedes deeper weakness.
Wedson says the second, decisive phase arrives only when long-term holders — historically the most conviction-driven cohort — also begin to show unrealized losses. In past cycles that moment marked maximum capitulation, when even patient, long-term investors feel pressure to sell. According to Wedson, that stage has not yet occurred.
Other analysts describe the market as entering a “bottom discovery phase.” On-chain metrics back that view: supply in profit has collapsed to about 11.1 million BTC versus roughly 19.8 million at last year’s peak. An estimated 8.7 million coins were purchased at prices now above today’s levels, creating one of the sharpest compressions of realized profit in Bitcoin’s history. Historically, similar conditions have often led to extended consolidation periods characterized by elevated fear.
Price action and flows reflect that tension. Bitcoin briefly fell into the low $72,000s amid U.S. political uncertainty over government funding, which triggered a broad risk-off move across equities, gold, and crypto. Prices recovered after the bill passed, but on-chain data show whales have offloaded more than 50,000 BTC in the past two weeks while retail addresses have been net accumulators.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,527, up 4.68% on the day but still down more than 19% for the week. ETF outflows continue to be a headwind, and analysts are watching the 200-week exponential moving average near $65,400 as a key technical support. Whether institutional flows stabilize — and whether long-term holders begin to mark losses — will be decisive in determining if current price action is the start of a true bottom or the prelude to further downside.