Two Democratic members of Congress introduced legislation targeting prediction-market bets tied to government actions after unusual wagers suggested insider knowledge about a potential US–Israel conflict with Iran.
Representative Greg Casar (D‑Texas) and Senator Chris Murphy (D‑Connecticut) announced the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act, prompted by what they described as “highly unusual bets” on Polymarket that a war involving the US and Israel against Iran would begin. Murphy said it was likely people with “inside information” about plans to bomb Iran had placed the wagers.
“We shouldn’t live in a country where someone sitting in the situation room making decisions about whether to invade or to bomb, decisions about war and peace, life and death, that those decisions could be driven by the fact that they have hundreds of thousands of dollars riding on the decision,” Casar said.
The bill follows other congressional efforts to curb prediction markets around sensitive events. Last week Senator Adam Schiff (D‑California) introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which would bar platforms from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination and individual deaths.
Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi let users bet on outcomes ranging from sports to US politics. Bets tied to the US–Israel–Iran situation have drawn controversy across government and media. A military correspondent for the Times of Israel reported receiving death threats after publishing a report about the date an Iranian missile struck Israel—threats that sources said were intended to influence the resolution of a Polymarket prediction.
As of the lawmakers’ announcement, Polymarket continued to offer markets related to potential US and Israel actions regarding Iran, including whether US ground forces would be deployed, timing of a ceasefire, and possible changes to Iranian leadership. Polymarket defended the role of prediction markets in a note on Middle East markets, saying such markets “harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts” and can answer pressing questions in ways mainstream media cannot.
Kalshi listed contracts connected to the Iranian situation but avoided specific military-action markets, instead offering events like whether Iran would reach a nuclear deal with the US or whether elected officials would visit Iran.
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