Key points:
– Bitcoin briefly reclaimed $70,000 but failed to hold it; many analysts expect a retest below $60,000.
– Several major altcoins have bounced off support levels, showing demand at lower prices.
Bitcoin pushed above $70,000 on Monday but could not sustain the breakout, which indicates bears are still active and attempting to retain control. Some traders foresee BTC dipping below the $60,000 support before a durable bottom forms. Glassnode’s recent Long-Term Holder Realized Loss metric also signals that selling may not be exhausted; the 30-day SMA of realized losses sits near $200 million per day and likely needs to fall below roughly $25 million for a base to be established.
Social sentiment offers a contrarian cue: Santiment reports about five bearish BTC comments for every four bullish ones—the most bearish skew since Feb. 28—which can imply markets may turn positive sooner than crowd expectations suggest.
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
The S&P 500 has pulled back to the 20-day exponential moving average (6,601), suggesting buyers are active on dips. Sellers are likely to test the recovery at the 20-day EMA; if bulls prevail, the index could climb to the 50-day simple moving average (6,777), where selling pressure may increase. A decisive break below 6,316 would signal a resumption of correction, with the next downside support near 6,147.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
DXY is trading between the 20-day EMA ($99.59) and the $100.54 resistance, stuck in a wide range. If sellers break the 20-day EMA, the index may fall toward the 50-day SMA (98.44), keeping price confined between roughly 95.55 and 100.54 for longer. Conversely, sustaining above the 20-day EMA would raise the odds of a breakout above 100.54, potentially extending gains toward 102 and then 103.54.
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC closed above its moving averages recently, hinting at a bullish attempt, but flat averages and an RSI near the midpoint show no clear edge. A sustained move above the moving averages opens the path to $72,000; a successful break there could target the $74,508–$76,000 zone. However, failure to hold the support line would invalidate the bullish setup and could lead to a slide into the $62,500–$60,000 support area.
Ether (ETH)
ETH also closed above its moving averages, clearing a route toward $2,200. Sellers may defend $2,200; if buyers overcome it, the next resistances sit at $2,400 and then $2,800–$3,050 for a sustained recovery. If ETH reverses sharply from $2,200 and loses the moving averages, the pair may consolidate, with range support at $1,916.
BNB
BNB’s bounce from $570 has reached the moving averages, where bears may reassert themselves. A sharp reversal from the averages risks a break below $570 and a continuation of the downtrend toward $500. If buyers push above the moving averages, BNB could remain inside the $570–$687 range for some time; a close above $687 would shift momentum to the bulls.
XRP
XRP bounced off the key $1.27 support, showing strong defense from buyers. Bulls need a close above the 50-day SMA ($1.39) to improve the chances of a rally to $1.61 and then toward the descending channel’s downtrend line. If XRP falls sharply from the moving averages and breaks below $1.27, the pair could decline to $1.11 and possibly test the $1.00 support line.
Solana (SOL)
SOL has been rangebound between $76 and $98, reflecting a struggle between bulls and bears. A break above the moving averages could push SOL to the $98 resistance, which sellers are likely to defend. A close above $98 would set up a move toward $117; a drop below $76 would target $67. The next trending move likely begins on a decisive close beyond these bounds.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
DOGE is trapped in a narrow band around the 50-day SMA ($0.09), indicating equilibrium between buying and selling. A close above the moving averages would favor buyers and could lead to rallies to $0.11 and $0.12. Failure to break higher and a drop below $0.09 would give bears control, potentially sending DOGE down to $0.08 and then $0.06.
Hyperliquid (HYPE)
Buyers are trying to hold HYPE above the 20-day EMA ($37.03) but face strong resistance. A close above the 20-day EMA would suggest continued demand at lower levels and could drive HYPE to $41.59 and then $44. If HYPE falls below the 50-day SMA ($34.48), a deeper correction to around $30 may occur.
Cardano (ADA)
ADA closed above $0.25, indicating diminishing bearish pressure. Resistance sits at the 50-day SMA ($0.26); clearing that could push ADA toward the descending channel’s downtrend line, where sellers may defend. On the downside, $0.22 is a key support—if it fails, ADA may resume its downtrend toward the support line near $0.16.
Disclaimer
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