Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner at SkyBridge, says the current Bitcoin (BTC) downturn fits the asset’s traditional four-year cycle and reflects long-term holders selling around the $100,000 psychological level. He argued that institutional investors and inflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have softened volatility and “muted” the cycle, but haven’t eliminated those recurring dynamics.
“We’re in a four-year cycle, and there were some traditional whales, some OG’s, that believe in the four-year cycle, and guess what happens in life when you believe in something? You create a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Scaramucci said.
He expects choppy price action through most of the year, with a new bull market emerging around the fourth quarter of 2026. Scaramucci noted many market participants—including himself—had anticipated BTC reaching $150,000 in 2025, driven in part by expectations of a pro-crypto presidential agenda and friendlier U.S. regulators. That view was upended by the October market crash, which saw Bitcoin fall from roughly $126,000 to about $60,000.
Scaramucci pointed to early 2023 as an example of markets moving contrary to prevailing sentiment: after the November 2022 collapse of the FTX exchange, Bitcoin bottomed in December and began a renewed rally amid broad apathy. He described the current decline as a “garden variety” correction consistent with past downturns.
The broader crypto community continues to debate whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact after BTC finished 2025 in the red or whether changing market structures have permanently altered its price behavior.
Geopolitical events are adding near-term pressure. Bitcoin dipped below $69,000 as the war in Iran entered its third week, dragging risk assets lower. The S&P 500 extended losses—falling about 1.3% in a session—and recently closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time in 10 months, a key technical bearish signal. Some analysts warn BTC could fall as much as 50% in 2026 if its positive correlation with the S&P 500 persists.
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