The chances of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried receiving a presidential pardon this year have fallen on U.S. prediction markets. Polymarket currently prices the probability at about 11% and Kalshi at about 9%. Both markets trimmed odds after a March 21 CNN interview with Bankman-Fried’s parents, Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried—Polymarket down ~2 percentage points and Kalshi ~1 point.
In the interview, his parents argued the fraud conviction was wrong and described ongoing legal efforts to overturn it. They acknowledged that Alameda Research borrowed customer funds from FTX but insisted the funds “were not used improperly,” saying Alameda “always had more than enough security to cover everything” and that customers had been repaid. Fried and Bankman said new testimony would refute three core government claims: that FTX was insolvent on Nov. 11, 2022; that customers could not be repaid; and that Alameda ran a recurring multi-billion-dollar deficit on FTX. Fried filed an appeal in February 2026 and also sought to have the trial judge replaced, alleging “extreme prejudice.”
FTX’s restructuring team had previously tried to recover millions from Bankman and Fried, accusing them of fraudulent transfers, including a $10 million cash gift and a $16.4 million Bahamian property. That civil action in Delaware Bankruptcy Court was dismissed without prejudice in February 2025, meaning it could be refiled.
The parents framed the prosecution as politically motivated. Fried told CNN she believed the Biden administration sought to “destroy crypto” and used prosecutions for political ends. The family has tried to distance Bankman-Fried from a strictly Democratic alignment, pointing out he donated to Republicans as well and saying he became disillusioned with the Biden administration’s approach to crypto.
Seeking clemency, Bankman-Fried’s parents have reportedly explored contacts in Trump’s orbit since Trump took office. But the political environment complicates that path. Senator Cynthia Lummis, a pro-crypto Republican, urged the president not to grant a pardon, saying Bankman-Fried “hurt a lot of people.” Trump has also indicated he would not pardon Bankman-Fried. Analysts note that pardons can be brokered through well-connected lobbyists or issued for political loyalty, but public and political resistance appears significant in this case.
The family has continued public efforts to sway opinion. In mid-March, Bankman-Fried—through legal proxies—posted support for Trump’s decision to bomb Iran. On prediction markets, unrelated geopolitical outcomes, such as a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by year’s end, are currently priced far higher (Polymarket shows ~78%) than a pardon for Bankman-Fried.
Cointelegraph Features produces long-form reporting and analysis; this content is editorial and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice.