XRP has fallen about 10.5% over the past three days, but the pullback may be a typical retest following a bull-flag breakout, coinciding with a surge in withdrawal activity on South Korea’s Upbit exchange.
XRP broke out of a downward-sloping consolidation (a bull flag) last week and recently pulled back to retest the former upper trendline as support, a common post-breakout move. That support sits around the mid-$1.40s and aligns with the 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA). Holding above this area would keep the breakout intact and preserve the bull-flag upside target near $1.70–$1.72, roughly 20% above current levels.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows wallets across nearly all size cohorts have been moving XRP off exchanges since December 2025, reducing immediate sell pressure — a behavior typically associated with accumulation. CryptoQuant analyst CW highlighted similarities to the 2021–early 2023 pattern when elevated XRP withdrawals from Korean exchanges coincided with accumulation that preceded a sharp rally (XRP rose from below $1 to above $3, about a 500% increase).
Upbit remains an active venue for XRP traders and a gauge of retail sentiment; XRP/KRW was the fourth-largest market by 24-hour volume at the time of reporting.
Whale activity also supports the bullish case: the 90-day average whale flow turned positive after a long period of negative flows through 2024 and early 2025, when large-holder selling prevailed. The shift to positive whale flow suggests whales are reducing distribution and may be returning to accumulation. Historically, such transitions have appeared during early stages of trend reversals and accumulation-led consolidations, including the April–September 2025 move from around $2.20 to $3.55.
If XRP holds the mid-$1.40s support and accumulation trends persist — withdrawals from exchanges and improving whale flows — the technical setup and on-chain signals point to a higher probability of the roughly 20% rally toward the $1.70–$1.72 target.
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