Prediction market transactions surged to record highs in March, driven by rising interest in political and geopolitical event contracts, improved accessibility and encouraging regulatory developments.
Dune-tracked data show more than 191 million transactions so far in March, a 2,838% increase from the same time last year. Blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs said the sector’s expansion has been amplified by Google Finance and mainstream media coverage of live odds. “Prediction markets have scaled rapidly due to improved accessibility, regulatory developments, and integration with mainstream platforms. They are increasingly used as real-time indicators of geopolitical and macroeconomic events,” TRM Labs said.
Prediction markets let users trade contracts on the outcomes of future events and are emerging as a significant real-world use case for blockchain, with some platforms settling in crypto rails and stablecoins.
Monthly notional trading volume for prediction markets reached roughly $23.9 billion in March so far, up sharply from $1.9 billion at the same point last year, according to Dune, though still about 12% below January’s all-time high. TRM Labs noted that crypto-native topics have lost share as traders concentrate on geopolitical events, U.S. politics and macroeconomic decisions.
Polymarket analytics show the five highest-volume contracts currently focus on which major U.S. parties will nominate candidates for the 2028 presidential race and whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will remain in office by year-end.
The sector has faced heightened scrutiny over allegations of insider trading and possible breaches of gambling laws. In March, Kalshi and Polymarket announced plans to introduce trading guardrails, the same day U.S. lawmakers unveiled a bipartisan bill aimed at banning event contracts that resemble “casino-style” games.
TRM Labs said future growth will hinge on how platforms address market integrity and manipulation risks. “Looking ahead, prediction markets have the potential to evolve beyond speculative platforms into core infrastructure for real-time information aggregation and risk pricing,” the firm added. “As liquidity deepens and participation broadens, these markets could increasingly serve as forward-looking indicators for policy decisions, geopolitical developments, and macroeconomic trends—complementing, and in some cases competing with, traditional forecasting tools.”
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