Prediction-market site Polymarket says it has banned and reported users who sent death threats to an Israeli journalist trying to force him to amend a news article about an Iranian missile strike that was the subject of a $17 million prediction market.
Times of Israel military correspondent Emanuel Fabian wrote that he began receiving messages asking him to change his report about a missile that struck outside Beit Shemesh on March 10. Fabian said the messages appeared intended to determine whether a missile had hit Israel on March 10 so a Polymarket prediction could be resolved.
The market allowed bets on the date Iran would strike Israel, with over $17 million staked on March 10. Its rules say the market resolves to “Yes” if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date, but add that missiles or drones that are intercepted would not count even if debris lands in Israel.
Fabian said his brief item reporting a missile strike in an open area became the focus of a betting dispute, with those who backed “No” on a March 10 strike pressuring him to alter the story so they would win. He received emails, calls and messages urging him to say the incident involved a missile fragment or an intercepted projectile; one person fabricated a message to make it look like Fabian agreed the missile was intercepted.
He described receiving long, threatening Hebrew messages from someone calling himself “Haim,” who demanded he change the report or face “damage you have never imagined.” Fabian wrote that Haim warned he was “at risk,” threatened to “finish you,” said Fabian had made “enemies who will be willing to pay anything to make your life miserable,” and included specific details about his parents, family and neighborhood. Fabian reported the threats to police, who are investigating.
Polymarket posted that it condemns the harassment and threats, said the behavior violates its Terms of Service, and that it has banned the accounts involved and will pass their information to the relevant authorities.
Before the threats, a journalist colleague told Fabian that an acquaintance had requested the story be changed. That acquaintance later admitted to placing bets on Polymarket and offered to share some winnings if the report was altered.
Fabian said the attempt to pressure him failed but expressed concern that other journalists might be tempted by promised payouts. At the time the market was in dispute, “No” bettors argued the March 10 explosion was an intercepted missile. Fabian subsequently reported that the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed the projectile that exploded outside Beit Shemesh was not intercepted.
Trading volumes on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have surged over the past year, prompting critics and lawmakers to warn that markets tied to war and political events could incentivize insider trading and other harmful behavior.