Traders on prediction market Polymarket put the chance of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal commercial traffic by May 31, 2026, at roughly 73% after Iranian officials announced a temporary reopening tied to a ceasefire deal. Odds briefly climbed to 82% when Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declared the strait open, then settled back near 73%. Araghchi said in a social post that passage for all commercial vessels is “completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire,” following routes published by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization. By comparison, the market gave only about a 40% probability that traffic would normalize by the end of April.
The conflict and the ceasefire developments have moved financial markets, influencing cryptocurrencies and energy prices as investors price geopolitical risk. Bitcoin rose on the ceasefire news, touching about $78,000 at one point and trading near $77,358 at the time of publication.
Crypto analyst Nic Puckrin described the ceasefire as “fragile,” noting unresolved core issues that could keep pressure on markets through much of 2026. He said the fallout could delay any interest-rate cuts until at least Q3 2026, if cuts occur this year. Puckrin added that for Bitcoin to resume a push toward $90,000, the market would likely need a sustained reduction in geopolitical tensions, a substantial fall in oil toward roughly $80, and softer economic data to alleviate stagflation concerns.
Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. naval blockade on Iran would “remain in full force and effect” until the transaction with Iran is “100% complete.”
This article follows Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy; readers are encouraged to independently verify details and monitor developments as the situation evolves.