The odds of a U.S. invasion of Iran this year jumped to 63% on the Polymarket prediction platform on Sunday after U.S. President Donald Trump posted an aggressive message on social media. The probability of an invasion before 2027 remains below the March 29 peak of 68%, a spike then driven by a U.S. troop buildup and administration comments about possibly seizing Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil shipping hub. Polymarket’s trading volume on the invasion market stood at roughly $3.74 million at the time of publication.
Earlier in the week, Trump signaled the U.S. might withdraw from Iran in “two to three weeks,” a comment that coincided with a roughly 2.6% rise in Bitcoin (BTC) and a near 2.91% gain in the S&P 500. On Sunday, however, he posted a much more confrontational message: “Tuesday will be power plant day, and bridge day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it! Open the fuckin’ strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell.”
Following that post, Bitcoin traded around $67,500, according to TradingView data. Markets remain sensitive to mixed signals from the administration about the scope and duration of the conflict, creating uncertainty for investors and affecting risk asset pricing as analysts and traders try to gauge war-related economic impacts.
The president’s comments drew notable online criticism. Economist Peter Schiff warned that threatening Iranian civilian infrastructure is a “lose-lose” that would damage U.S. standing and fuel anti-American sentiment, while podcaster and Bitcoin advocate Peter McCormack expressed surprise that the post was real.
Oil prices remain elevated amid the tensions: Brent crude — the international spot market benchmark — closed Thursday above $109 per barrel. Trading resumed Monday following the Easter holiday weekend.
Related coverage has included scrutiny of prediction markets; Polymarket previously removed a market on a missing U.S. pilot after backlash. Cointelegraph states it follows an editorial policy aimed at independent, transparent journalism and encourages readers to verify information independently. Read the Editorial Policy at https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy.