The quantum risk to Bitcoin holders is real, but not all wallets are exposed and experts are actively addressing the problem, says Galaxy Digital research analyst Will Owens.
In a Thursday report, Owens explained that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could, in theory, derive a private key from a public key, enabling an attacker to impersonate an owner, forge a signature and steal coins. However, he emphasized that vulnerability depends on whether a wallet’s public key is exposed on-chain.
“Most wallets are not vulnerable today. Funds are at risk only when public keys are exposed on-chain,” Owens wrote. He identified two primary exposure scenarios: wallets with public keys already visible on-chain and wallets whose public keys become visible when spending.
The quantum-computing threat to cryptocurrencies has been debated for years. Advanced quantum machines could someday break current cryptographic schemes, potentially revealing keys, exposing data and allowing theft. Critics counter that practical quantum attacks remain decades away and that larger, traditional targets would likely be compromised before Bitcoin.
Owens also addressed online claims that Bitcoin Core developers are “ignoring and gatekeeping” quantum-related proposals such as the soft fork BIP 360. He found that developer activity on quantum mitigations has accelerated since late 2025. “Contrary to some public criticism, our review found substantial developer work addressing the question of quantum vulnerabilities and mitigations,” he said, noting a “concrete and maturing set of proposals” that are being actively developed, reviewed and debated by experienced contributors.
Other industry figures have suggested practical mitigations. Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo has argued that holding BTC in a SegWit wallet for several years could reduce quantum-related risk, since SegWit can limit the exposure of public keys on-chain.
Owens warned that governance will remain a challenge when a post-quantum solution is ready because Bitcoin has no central authority to mandate updates. Still, he argued the universal, technical nature of the threat aligns incentives across the ecosystem: miners, holders and exchanges all have a direct financial interest in maintaining network security.
“For investors, the key takeaway is straightforward: the risk is real but recognized, and the people best positioned to address it are working on it,” Owens concluded.
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