Bitcoin (BTC) sellers re-emerged Thursday as the price slipped under $70,000, prompting analysts to warn the market is showing late-stage bear characteristics driven by extreme fear and elevated realized and unrealized losses.
Key takeaways:
– Bitcoin appears to be in the later stages of a bear market, with extreme fear and a large share of supply in loss.
– High unrealized losses and a roughly 96% drop in realized profits point to “demand exhaustion.”
– $70,000 is the immediate level to watch; support sits below in the $65,000–$60,000 area.
Bitcoin holder losses increase
Bitcoin’s drawdown now exceeds 44% from the $126,000 all-time high on Oct. 6, 2025. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) fell below 0.25 — placing BTC in the “hope/fear” zone — meaning about 40% of circulating supply is held at a loss, CryptoQuant analyst The Enigma Trader said. The Fear & Greed Index sits in “Extreme Fear” at 15, reflecting pain and uncertainty.
A NUPL recovery above 0.25 would mark a move toward optimism, historically linked with stronger price momentum. Structurally, this resembles prior bear markets where NUPL fell below 0 as Bitcoin found a bottom.
Glassnode shows the 7-day SMA of relative unrealized losses stabilized near 15%, indicating elevated fear. Resolving this level of embedded loss typically requires time, further price declines, or a rapid and sustained influx of fresh capital, Glassnode wrote.
Entity-adjusted realized profit has plunged from about $3 billion per day in July 2025 to under $0.1 billion — a decline of more than 96% and further evidence of demand exhaustion. Such contractions are typical of a bear market entering later stages, where profitable sellers are depleted and on-chain liquidity thins to cycle lows.
CryptoQuant’s Crypto Dan noted some indicators suggest a $60,000 bottom is possible, but said more consistent, decisive confirmation is required to call a true bottom.
Watch these Bitcoin price levels next
Since recovering from multi-year lows below $60,000, BTC/USD has been range-bound, with $64,000 acting as support and $72,000 as resistance. Bitcoin is currently defending the 1w–1m cohort cost basis at roughly $70,200, which Glassnode says marks the developing support floor. The cost-basis heatmap shows only modest accumulation at this level, making it vulnerable to a breakdown unless a larger base of committed buyers forms.
Below $70,200, the next major level to monitor is Bitcoin’s realized price around $54,000 — historically relevant, as the 2022 bear-market bottom formed near realized price.
On the upside, the 1m–3m cohort cost basis at $82,200 represents key overhead resistance, coinciding with concentrated short-term holder supply above $84,000. That cohort could amplify sell pressure whether price rallies toward those levels or the market faces renewed stress.
Technical analyst CryptoPatel said the recent move to $76,000 was a lower high and that higher-timeframe structure points lower, with the next meaningful area of interest below $50,000. He also warned of a bearish order block between $86,000 and $90,000 if $76,000 is overcome.
A close below the 20-day exponential moving average at $70,303 could accelerate a slide toward the $62,500–$60,000 support zone.
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