For more than a decade, Bitcoin investors have used a four-year rhythm tied to halvings to frame bull runs, sell-offs and market shifts. As 2025 unfolds, that roadmap is starting to look less reliable, prompting analysts to search for a new framework for where Bitcoin (BTC) could head next.
Some observers point to growing institutional capital as the main driver of change. Others cite a weakening halving effect, competing investment themes such as AI, or global liquidity trends that no longer match past patterns. The consensus: Bitcoin’s behavior appears to be changing.
In an interview with Cointelegraph, Jeff Park, partner and chief investment officer at ProCap BTC, questions the assumptions underlying the four-year cycle and suggests Bitcoin may be moving into a shorter, two-year cycle. Park argues that the market structure has shifted because institutional flows follow different incentives than retail participants, and those flows — including ETF-related activity — can compress market dynamics.
Shorter cycles would force investors to rethink timing, risk management and expectations for volatility as Bitcoin heads toward 2026. Park explains why some market participants might actually prefer short-term weakness, how liquidity patterns intersect with the emerging cycle, and what these changes could imply for the next major price move.
Watch the complete interview with Jeff Park on the Cointelegraph YouTube channel for his full breakdown of the two-year cycle theory and its implications for Bitcoin’s future: https://youtu.be/_UAqk2OoK8k
