Hyperliquid’s HYPE is trading near $32 after a failed breakout, with leverage and weak spot volume skewing risk toward deeper downside.
Summary
– HYPE sits around $32, down >7% in 24 hours and 11% weekly, far below its $59 peak.
– Shrinking spot volume and heavy derivatives open interest point to a leverage‑driven, fragile market.
– Technicals show lower highs, fading momentum, and nearby supports in the low‑$30s and high‑$20s at risk.
Price action and market structure
HYPE is in the mid‑$30s area, shaped by supply from a recent token unlock and ongoing purchases from the project’s Assistance Fund. Traders are watching whether the $33–$35 band holds as support; a breakdown there would likely open a move toward the high‑$20s.
Spot trades on major venues cluster in the low‑ to mid‑$30s, leaving HYPE with a multi‑billion‑dollar fully diluted valuation on relatively modest daily volume. Daily RSI stuck in the high‑40s and short‑term averages pressing down on price indicate an undecided market where neither side has clear control. Market structure still leans against a clean upside break: the recent unlock added visible supply, trading activity is shrinking, and the chart remains in a long‑running descending channel.
Token unlock and flows
About 9.9 million HYPE — roughly 2.6% of circulating supply — hit the float in a single cliff event near November 29 for insiders and contributors. The Assistance Fund has spent heavily on buybacks this year and typically absorbs a few million tokens daily, but steady demand looks small relative to this one‑off release. Spot and futures volumes are down roughly a third from recent highs and open interest has only eased slightly, a mix that can produce sudden air pockets once price moves.
Social sentiment and leverage risk
Social channels are split. Some say HYPE is lagging but fundamentally intact, others view recent weakness as part of a market rotation away from high‑beta names. A vocal group claims the Assistance Fund is quietly buying while HYPE trades like stressed paper.
Leverage adds risk: public notes of large leveraged longs — e.g., a cited whale long with significant exposure and a liquidation near $22.5 — highlight how concentrated derivatives positions can amplify moves and trigger cascades if stops run.
Technical outlook and scenarios
The chart remains capped by a descending channel; the 33–35 dollar band is the current pivot. A decisive daily close below that zone would make the 28–30 dollar area the likely next liquidity pocket and stop cluster. Conversely, reclaiming and holding 36–37 would suggest sellers are running out of inventory and could reopen scope toward $40+ into year‑end, but that requires stronger flows, healthier funding, and firmer open interest alongside Assistance Fund bids.
Odds slightly favor the downside in the near term due to the fresh supply overhang and softer speculative participation. Base case: retest of the high‑$20s. Lower‑probability path: squeeze back through $37 if macro risk stabilizes and buyback demand sufficiently absorbs unlocked supply.
