BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says the US Federal Reserve may loosen its hawkish stance and effectively “print money” to help finance a US conflict with Iran — a move he predicts would lift crypto markets.
In a Monday blog post, Hayes argued that every US president since 1985 who launched military action in the Middle East saw the Fed cut rates and expand the money supply to fund the effort. He cited the 1990 Gulf War, the global war on terror after Sept. 11, 2001, and the 2009 Afghanistan “surge” as past examples of monetary easing tied to military spending.
“The longer Trump engages in the extremely costly activity of Iranian nation-building, the higher the likelihood that the Fed lowers the price and increases the quantity of money to support Pax Americana’s latest bout of Middle Eastern adventurism,” Hayes wrote. He advised a cautious stance for investors: wait to buy, and “back up the truck” on Bitcoin and quality altcoins only after the Fed cuts rates or prints money to support government objectives in Iran.
Hayes has also floated other scenarios that might prompt Fed easing, including a new liquidity tool called Reserve Management Purchases, efforts to contain a Japanese bond-market crisis, or a credit shock triggered by AI-driven job losses.
Over the weekend, Israel and the US launched airstrikes on Iran that reportedly killed the country’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei — actions President Donald Trump has vowed to continue. The strikes drove a spike in social-media mentions of “World War 3,” though those mentions remained below levels seen in June 2025 during a prior 12-day Israel–Iran conflict.
Market indicators showed only modest immediate reaction: US stock futures opened marginally lower, oil gave up roughly half its initial gain, and the S&P 500 was down less than 1%, prompting macro newsletter The Kobeissi Letter to note, “This is not a futures open that is anywhere near WW3.”
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