by Estefano Gomez · Just now
Gulf states are moving to normalize relations with Iran amid the ongoing 2026 conflict. The probability of a US–Iran ceasefire by April 7 is 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago.
Markets show growing interest in diplomacy, with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries acting as intermediaries. The April 30 ceasefire market jumped to 38% YES, signaling traders expect progress soon. The largest increase is between April 15 and April 30, a 20-point rise, suggesting a potential diplomatic catalyst.
Ceasefire markets trade about $1.37M in USDC daily. A $43,954 trade moves the April 15 market by 5 points, indicating institutional participation. The biggest recent move was a 4-point spike in the April 30 market, reflecting optimism about diplomacy.
The GCC’s engagement is crucial. Their mediation, alongside US coordination, could stabilize the region and reduce the likelihood of Iran’s regime collapsing. The June 30 regime-fall market fell to 10% YES from 12% yesterday and 22% a week ago. A YES share at 10¢ would pay $1 if the regime falls by June 30, but current diplomacy points toward stabilization.
Traders should monitor Qatar and Oman’s intermediary roles and shifts in rhetoric from involved parties, which may foreshadow further ceasefire progress.
Markets Impacted
– US × Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES (https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by-april-7-278)
– US × Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES (https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by-april-15-182-528-637)
– US × Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES (https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by-april-30-194-679-389)
– US × Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES (https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by-may-31-313-373-916)
– US × Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES (https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by-june-30-752-741-257)
– US × Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES (https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by-december-31-969-392)
– Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 10.5% YES (https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30/will-the-iranian-regime-fall-by-june-30)
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Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy: https://cryptobriefing.com/editorial-policy/