The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said it will keep the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% as it watches macroeconomic effects from the ongoing war in the Middle East.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said economic activity has expanded at a “solid pace,” with consumer spending “resilient” and business investment growing. The housing sector remains weak, the labor market shows signs of softening, and inflation is “somewhat elevated” above the Fed’s 2% target. Powell noted the conflict’s uncertainty: higher energy prices will push up inflation, but the scope and duration of economic effects are still unknown.
Interest-rate policy influences risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies: lower rates tend to boost asset prices, while higher rates redirect capital toward government bonds. Market pricing from the CME’s FedWatch tool shows 97% of participants expect no change at the April 2026 FOMC meeting, while 3% price a 25-basis-point hike that would raise the target to 3.75–4.00%.
Market commentators differ on what comes next. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says he’s waiting for rate cuts before buying Bitcoin and suggests the conflict with Iran could prompt the Fed to ease policy to help finance the war. Macroeconomist Lyn Alden argues the Fed has entered a “gradual print” phase, steadily expanding money supply and lifting asset prices.
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