Figure Technology Solutions, a blockchain-based lending platform that went public last year, may be undervalued as loan originations accelerate and its tokenized credit marketplace scales, Bernstein analysts say.
In a Monday report, Bernstein assigned Figure an “Outperform” rating and a $67 price target — nearly double the stock’s recent trading level of about $32. The bullish call follows a surge in lending activity: Figure originated $1.2 billion in loans in March, up 33% month-over-month and the first time monthly volumes exceeded $1 billion.
The company primarily originates home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), letting homeowners borrow against property equity often at lower rates than unsecured loans. Figure uses the Provenance blockchain to reduce friction in the loan process; Provenance estimates blockchain transactions shave about 117 basis points per loan.
First-quarter originations reached $2.9 billion, more than double a year earlier and defying typical seasonal HELOC slowdowns. That pace tracks to roughly $12 billion in annualized loan volume. Bernstein highlights growth drivers including rising consumer loan demand, an expanding partner network and continued rollout of Figure’s blockchain-based credit infrastructure, including its YLDS stablecoin.
Figure posted a largely positive fourth quarter with higher earnings and revenue, though profits missed expectations. Despite improving fundamentals, shares have fallen more than 20% year-to-date amid volatility across digital asset–linked stocks and sector pressures. The stock has also struggled to regain momentum since its Nasdaq debut last September, which valued the company at nearly $800 million.
Bernstein’s analysis values Figure at roughly 25 times projected 2027 EBITDA, a premium to existing digital-asset companies that reflects the firm’s combined tokenization platform and profitable lending prospects. Risks include HELOC demand sensitivity to mortgage refinancing trends and signs of pressure in the broader private credit market.
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