Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), could climb roughly 25% in the coming months as its largest whale cohort shifts back into profit for the first time since early February.
Key takeaways:
– Historically, ETH gained about 25% in three months and 50% in six months after top whales returned to aggregate profit.
– If the on-chain signal persists, Ether could test roughly $2,750 by June.
Whale metric signals ETH may have bottomed
The unrealized profit ratio for wallets holding more than 100,000 ETH has flipped above zero, according to CryptoQuant, meaning that this whale group is no longer sitting on aggregate paper losses. On-chain analyst CW noted that similar transitions to a “profitable state” have historically marked the start of uptrends.
After prior flips, ETH averaged nearly 25% gains three months later, about 50% after six months, and roughly 300% after a year. The logic: once top whales are in profit they have less defensive selling pressure, and their renewed conviction can boost broader market confidence.
If the historical pattern repeats, ETH could move toward the $2,750 area by June and surpass $3,200 by September. The signal is not foolproof—after a similar flip in 2018, ETH fell 17.5% the following month and ultimately dropped nearly 70%.
On-chain data caps upside near $2,640
Glassnode’s MVRV deviation bands show ETH rebounding from the lowest deviation band, a setup comparable to rebounds in Q2 2022 and Q2 2025 when price recovered from undervalued levels and climbed back above the realized price.
ETH currently sits below its realized price of $2,353, which is the initial key recovery level. Clearing that threshold could open the path to the -0.5 sigma band near $2,640. Conversely, failure to reclaim realized price could expose ETH to a retest of the lowest deviation band around $1,651.
Technicals reinforce $2,600+ scenario
Technically, ETH has broken above an ascending triangle and is now pulling back toward the former resistance trendline — a common retest after breakouts. If that trendline holds as support, Ether could resume toward the triangle’s measured target near $2,625 or higher, aligning with the on-chain MVRV recovery range.
If the retest fails, the breakout structure would weaken and risk sending ETH back toward lower supports near $1,950–$2,000.
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