An RSI-based analysis shared on X by analyst Sykodelic suggests Ethereum, trading around $3,100, could rally significantly after a decisive RSI breakout. The analyst examined daily RSI behavior over the last five years and found a recurring pattern: whenever ETH’s 1D RSI moved from overbought to oversold and then broke the downtrend, the price rose at least 45%.
Using that pattern, Sykodelic calls a 45% gain the “minimum, worst-case” outcome, which would put ETH near $4,300. The historical average move after this signal is 111%, which would target about $6,800. He noted that in four of five prior instances the market bottom was already in when the trend broke; only once did ETH double-bottom after the break.
The analysis highlights a recent shift: ETH’s RSI fell into deep oversold territory below 30 after the October 11 crash but has recovered toward 50 as buyers re-emerge. That recovery and the break of the downtrend are the technical triggers behind the bullish case.
Context: Ethereum recently implemented the Fusaka upgrade, part of ongoing scaling and protocol work. Still, macro and crypto-specific risks remain. A new or extended bear phase could keep RSI low for long periods, weakening this signal’s reliability.
Outlook: If the RSI-based pattern repeats, a move to $4,300 would be a conservative outcome, while a repeat of the historical average would imply a move toward $6,800. Traders should watch RSI behavior and price action over the coming weeks of December to assess whether this breakout sustains or a prolonged bear environment undermines the setup.
