Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), slid to a year-to-date low of $1,927 on Thursday, leaving it more than 60% below its all-time high of $4,950. Analysts say the drop is testing investor conviction, with onchain metrics and exchange inflows pointing to a broader bear phase. Despite heavy selling, larger holders have been accumulating, though it remains unclear if that will help ETH reclaim $2,000.
Key takeaways:
– Mid-sized holders (100–10,000 ETH) have cut exposure, signaling capitulation.
– Large holders (10,000+ ETH) increased positions over the past quarter, absorbing some sell pressure.
– ETH trades below the realized price for every cohort, and rising exchange inflows keep downside risk elevated.
Onchain distribution highlights shifting behavior across wallet sizes
Over the last five months, balance-by-holder-value data shows distinct shifts between wallet cohorts. CryptoQuant reported that on Aug. 18, 2025, wallets holding 100–1,000 ETH controlled 9.79 million ETH; 1,000–10,000 held 14.51 million ETH; 10,000–100,000 held 17.18 million ETH; and 100,000-plus wallets held 2.75 million ETH.
By Wednesday, balances for the 100–1,000 and 1,000–10,000 cohorts had fallen to 8.32 million ETH and 12.26 million ETH, respectively. Conversely, 10,000–100,000 wallets rose to 19.77 million ETH and 100,000-plus wallets expanded to 3.68 million ETH. The pattern points to accumulation by whales and large entities while smaller and mid-sized holders distribute into weakness.
Realized price dynamics add pressure. Each cohort’s realized price — the average cost basis at which that group last moved ETH — sits above the current market price. Realized prices cluster between roughly $2,120 for 100,000-plus holders and about $2,690 for 100–1,000 holders. ETH briefly closed below the aggregate realized price of $2,630 on Saturday, a level often associated with stress-driven selling.
Exchange inflows and market execution underscore bearish bias
Binance saw Ether inflows surge to roughly 1.63 million ETH on Wednesday, the largest daily inflow since 2022. Large deposits to exchanges often precede selling or portfolio rebalancing, and a spike amid weak price action intensifies downside concerns.
Market execution data reinforces that selling dominates. Crypto analyst PelinayPA noted Ether’s Binance taker buy/sell ratio sits around 0.94 — below the neutral 1. Both the 30- and 50-day averages remain under 1, implying sustained selling pressure rather than a short-lived dip. PelinayPA suggested this may mark the start of a “true bear season” for the altcoin, with challenging conditions likely to persist.
Related coverage has noted high-profile selling, including recent disclosures of planned withdrawals and notable ETH sales by major holders.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.