Traders say Dogecoin’s price cycle metrics show signs of an early-cycle reset: subdued valuation, rising active addresses and renewed whale accumulation, but roughly 11.7 billion DOGE near $0.20 could cap upside.
Summary
– The Mayer Multiple sits far below prior blow-off peaks, suggesting DOGE is not in the overheated territory seen at 2017 and 2021 tops.
– Days spent at a loss have compressed from extreme readings, resembling reset phases that preceded past advances.
– Glassnode and Santiment data show the biggest active-address spike since September, 480 million DOGE bought by whales, and heavy realized-cost resistance around $0.20.
Analysis
Long-term charts using the Mayer Multiple (200- and 50-period moving averages with a 2.4 threshold) place the current reading at about 0.66, well under the spikes above 5 that marked the 2017 and 2021 peaks. That indicates valuation is not yet at historically overheated levels.
An Alphractal indicator tracking “Days Spent at a Loss” shows the metric has compressed toward lower values after extended peaks in prior cycles. Historically, similar compressions have preceded upward moves in Dogecoin’s cycles, implying the market structure may be resetting.
Network and on-chain signals support this view. Glassnode-recorded active addresses surged to about 71,589 — the largest daily spike since September — after a period where daily activity hovered near 45,000–47,500. That jump points to broader participation as price stabilized.
Santiment and on-chain balance data show renewed whale interest: addresses holding between 1 million and 100 million DOGE bought roughly 480 million coins within 48 hours. Whale balances in this band had fallen from ~35.6 billion in mid-October to below 28 billion by late November, then rose to about 28.45 billion as price rebounded, indicating fresh accumulation by large holders.
Cost-basis analysis from Glassnode maps realized-price concentration and flags a dense resistance band around $0.20, where approximately 11.72 billion DOGE were accumulated. That node represents a sizable supply that would move from unrealized loss to breakeven as spot price reaches the area, posing meaningful resistance.
Conclusion
The mix of a low Mayer Multiple, compressed days-at-loss, rising active addresses, recent whale accumulation and a clear cost-basis resistance zone underpin bullish structural signals but also highlight a substantial supply obstacle near $0.20. Whether DOGE advances past that level will depend on the market’s ability to absorb the roughly 11.72 billion coins at that band and sustain improving on-chain activity and large-holder demand.
