Crypto and broader markets fell on Monday as tensions between the US and Iran escalated for a fourth week, driving volatile oil moves.
US President Donald Trump posted that the US would “hit and obliterate” Iranian power plants, “starting with the biggest one first,” if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Iran replied it would retaliate against any US strikes on its power or water infrastructure by targeting US and Israeli assets in the Gulf and threatened to close the Strait, a key oil shipping route.
Bitcoin, long touted by some as a safe haven, slid 1.8% in 24 hours to $68,160 after briefly dipping below $67,600 late Sunday. The drop triggered a wave of crypto liquidations: $336.3 million was wiped from the market in the last day, with roughly $100 million tied to failed Bitcoin long bets, according to CoinGlass.
Rachael Lucas, analyst at BTC Markets, said crypto is “trading in lockstep with equities right now, not as a haven,” and sentiment is extremely weak, with the Fear and Greed Index deep in “extreme fear” at 8.
Asian stocks fell on the news: Australia and New Zealand were down 0.8% and Japan fell over 4%. Crude oil briefly topped $100 a barrel in early trading before pulling back to $97.20 and later trading near $99.30. Brent crude spiked above $114 per barrel before settling below $113.
Lucas said crypto’s direction depends on de-escalation in the Iran conflict and decisions by the US Federal Reserve. She noted Brent’s jump is feeding inflation expectations and has raised the probability of a Fed rate hike from zero to 12.4% in a single week, a macro repricing that crypto is likely to mirror until there is clarity.
On technical levels, Lucas flagged $68,000 as immediate Bitcoin support, with $65,800 the next meaningful floor if that gives way. To regain a credible recovery narrative, Bitcoin would need to reclaim $71,500. She also pointed to continued institutional backing, citing $1.43 billion in net inflows to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds so far this month, and said that when sentiment is very low but institutional infrastructure is strong, history suggests conditions for a recovery can build even if timing is uncertain.
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