Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says bitcoin may have a total addressable market that exceeds gold’s roughly $38 trillion valuation, and that BTC tends to perform well during geopolitical turmoil.
Hougan highlighted on X that recent geopolitical events coincided with bitcoin strength: since U.S. and Israeli strikes began on February 28, bitcoin climbed about 12% while the S&P 500 slipped roughly 1% and gold fell nearly 10%. Bitcoin also pushed toward $76,000 amid easing U.S. inflation data and shifting risk sentiment.
Why geopolitics may help bitcoin
Hougan rejects two common narratives—that geopolitics doesn’t affect bitcoin and that any benefit is only a long-term byproduct of monetary easing. Instead he points to a growing “apolitical” appeal: nations and actors facing exclusion from global finance may seek nonstate alternatives. He cites Russia’s partial SWIFT exclusion in 2022 and more recent sanctions on Iran, where crypto has been used to facilitate trade and transit amid oil blockades through the Strait of Hormuz. That dynamic, Hougan argues, can increase demand for a borderless, politically neutral store of value.
From this view, two implications follow: bitcoin could rise during future geopolitical conflicts—especially in places caught between U.S. and Chinese financial systems—and its addressable market may be materially larger than gold’s current market cap.
Bitcoin compared with gold and price outlooks
Measured against gold, bitcoin has been recovering from lows not seen since mid-2023. Trader Michaël van de Poppe noted that bitcoin’s recent correction versus gold was the deepest in its history. Looking at similar troughs, he said average 12-month returns after those events ranged from roughly 350% to 450%, implying multi-year upside scenarios (for example, a hypothetical rise from $60,000 toward much higher levels).
Van de Poppe also offered a nearer-term target: mean reversion could occur sooner, with bitcoin potentially trading in the roughly $87,500–$90,000 range within about three months. He framed the pattern as a reminder to “buy the dip” following deep drawdowns.
Outlook and caveats
Market direction will remain tied to geopolitics, macroeconomic data, and capital flows into crypto as investors reassess bitcoin’s role relative to traditional safe havens like gold. While some see these developments as supporting a larger bitcoin total addressable market, outcomes depend on policy decisions, adoption trends, and risk appetite across investors and nation-states.
This article is informational and not investment advice. All investments and trades carry risk; readers should do independent research and consider their own circumstances before making financial decisions.