Bitcoin price measures have improved this month, yet analysts warn a repeat of the 2022 downturn remains possible.
Key developments
– The Bitcoin Bull Score Index (BSI), a composite of nine price metrics, is at its highest level since October 2025 and has moved into neutral territory around the 50 mark. BTC is trading near $78,000 as the index climbs.
– Market commentators caution the rally could be temporary, noting parallels with early 2022 when a brief neutral reading preceded a deeper decline.
– Crypto sentiment, measured by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, has climbed to 32/100, the most bullish level since mid-January, though it remains in the fear zone.
BSI exits bearish zone
Onchain analytics provider CryptoQuant shows the BSI rising out of the deeply bearish readings that characterized much of the current cycle. The index combines nine separate price indicators to give an overall sense of market health, and its move into the neutral band is the first such shift during this bear market.
CryptoQuant contributor Julio Moreno noted on X that this is the first time the BSI has reached neutral in the current cycle, but he warned that the change could be fleeting. He pointed to March 2022, when the Bull Score briefly touched neutral before BTC resumed its slide. Traders will be watching the BSI’s path into the April monthly close as BTC/USD attempts to break out of a multi-month range.
Another CryptoQuant contributor, Arab Chain, said last week’s reading when price hovered around $74,000 suggested a balance between supply and demand. Arab Chain added that the market is far from exuberant optimism, which would be reflected by a BSI above 60, but also well removed from extreme pessimism, leaving markets in a transitional phase while participants look for fresh catalysts.
Sentiment edges toward neutrality
Trader mood has improved alongside price metrics. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 32 out of 100, up from 23 the prior week, marking the least negative sentiment since mid-January. The index remains in the fear category, but the near-tripling over a short period signals a tentative shift toward neutrality.
Outlook
Together, the BSI and Fear & Greed Index suggest a tentative recovery rather than a decisive bullish turn. Analysts urge caution, noting that similar short-lived recoveries occurred before the deeper 2022 drawdown. Market participants will likely track both onchain indicators and price action around the monthly close for clues on whether the rally will sustain.
Disclaimer
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