Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below $73,000 on Tuesday as fresh data highlights mounting macroeconomic strains beneath volatile markets. Tightening credit conditions, elevated U.S. debt and higher borrowing costs contrast with compressed corporate credit spreads — a divergence one analyst says could shape Bitcoin’s path in coming months.
Key takeaways:
– The ICE BofA US Corporate Option-Adjusted Spread is near 0.75, its tightest level since the late 1990s.
– U.S. government debt stands at $38.5 trillion; the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.28%.
– Whale inflows to exchanges have risen while on-chain profit-taking is easing.
Tight credit spreads vs. rising economic strain
The ICE BofA Corporate Option-Adjusted Spread, which measures the extra yield investors demand to hold corporate bonds over Treasurys, remains highly compressed. Compressed spreads imply credit risk may be underpriced, even as broader conditions tighten: U.S. debt reached $38.5 trillion at the end of January and the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.28%, tightening financial conditions despite limited stress reflected in corporate credit.
Historically, Bitcoin formed local lows after credit spreads began to widen — typically with a three- to six-month lag. In August 2025, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson argued that if liquidity tightens and credit spreads widen, Bitcoin could enter another accumulation phase before broader market stress becomes obvious.
Whale selling rises, longer-term pressure easing
Short-term selling has picked up. Crypto analyst Amr Taha noted recent sizable transfers to Binance from both whale wallets (>1,000 BTC) and mid-term holders; wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC deposited about 5,000 BTC on Monday, echoing a similar spike in December. Holders in the six- to 12-month cohort also moved roughly 5,000 BTC to exchanges — the largest inflow from that group since early 2024.
At the same time, broader selling pressure appears to be fading. CryptoQuant data show the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has fallen toward 1 — its lowest level in a year — as Bitcoin hit a year-to-date low near $73,900. That suggests long-term sellers are less active.
Outlook
Rising Treasury yields could strain credit markets and push corporate spreads toward the 1.5%–2% range through April. If historical patterns hold, widening spreads could precede a BTC bottom by three to six months, pointing to a potential accumulation window after July 2026 and into the second half of the year as markets absorb stress and long-term selling wanes.
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